Ledger / Prediction #715 · narrative · 1H
Will "quantum" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 59% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
62 of 1547 launches in the last hour referenced "quantum" (46 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.32×.
Made2026-10-10 10:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 11:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 09:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.37765447089164866,
"momentum": 0.2767340492638949,
"diversity": -0.009677419354838701
},
"rawProbability": 0.5853344498136027
},
"features": {
"term": "quantum",
"rank60": 3,
"share15": 0.053246753246753244,
"share60": 0.04037467700258398,
"total15": 384,
"total60": 1547,
"momentum": 1.3188155844155844,
"diversity": 0.7419354838709677,
"launches15": 20,
"launches60": 62,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 46
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 213,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9943466666666667,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9943466666666667
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5853344498136027
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-10 11:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.343
Log loss0.880
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.024253731343283583,
"shareRatio": 0.6015571857122582,
"totalAfter": 1608,
"shareBefore": 0.04051446945337621,
"totalBefore": 1555,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 39,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 63
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 59% that "quantum" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.05% → 2.43% (-40%). INCORRECT.
— volume misled on "quantum" (1H). volume contributed +0.38 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
14f0dfbfef83b5e204fbad1928a4bb67d3e8480c9bdb57df9ab88dfcbedaab9dPrevious hash
7a242723f01004b58f2003a4daead51860b5a366094a4d6e4feafd8948dd85fe