GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #715 · narrative · 1H

Will "quantum" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 59% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

62 of 1547 launches in the last hour referenced "quantum" (46 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.32×.

Made2026-10-10 10:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 11:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 09:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.37765447089164866,
      "momentum": 0.2767340492638949,
      "diversity": -0.009677419354838701
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5853344498136027
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "quantum",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.053246753246753244,
    "share60": 0.04037467700258398,
    "total15": 384,
    "total60": 1547,
    "momentum": 1.3188155844155844,
    "diversity": 0.7419354838709677,
    "launches15": 20,
    "launches60": 62,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 46
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 213,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9943466666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9943466666666667
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5853344498136027
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 11:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.343
Log loss0.880
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.024253731343283583,
  "shareRatio": 0.6015571857122582,
  "totalAfter": 1608,
  "shareBefore": 0.04051446945337621,
  "totalBefore": 1555,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 39,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 63
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 59% that "quantum" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.05% → 2.43% (-40%). INCORRECT.

— volume misled on "quantum" (1H). volume contributed +0.38 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash14f0dfbfef83b5e204fbad1928a4bb67d3e8480c9bdb57df9ab88dfcbedaab9d
Previous hash7a242723f01004b58f2003a4daead51860b5a366094a4d6e4feafd8948dd85fe