Ledger / Prediction #717 · narrative · 6H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 40% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

97 of 1547 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (57 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.68×.

Made2026-10-10 10:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 16:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 09:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.44479095991039236,
      "momentum": -0.38501627723537835,
      "diversity": -0.19484536082474224
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.40262258869818623
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.04285714285714286,
    "share60": 0.06298449612403101,
    "total15": 384,
    "total60": 1547,
    "momentum": 0.6804395604395604,
    "diversity": 0.5876288659793815,
    "launches15": 16,
    "launches60": 97,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 57
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 213,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9943466666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990577777777778
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.40262258869818623
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 16:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.162

Log loss0.515

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.03242769500438212,
  "shareRatio": 0.7724663687587048,
  "totalAfter": 11410,
  "shareBefore": 0.041977387539090694,
  "totalBefore": 8314,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 370,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 349
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 40% that "cat" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 4.20% → 3.24% (-23%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "cat" (6H). momentum contributed -0.39 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashb172f8559018e70115f73c837da7dde09dd876e17e16b764b83889b5bab6e7f4

Previous hash878fb44aea3d3a30a8f67e08611210f44444aa1b8be44a473a52e00b0f99d7c5