Will "live" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 45% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

20 of 1547 launches in the last hour referenced "live" (17 distinct creators, rank #18). Last 15m momentum 0.88×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2079441541679836,
      "momentum": -0.12487176950620021,
      "diversity": 0.11999999999999997
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4505462647843238
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "live",
    "rank60": 18,
    "share15": 0.011688311688311689,
    "share60": 0.013242894056847546,
    "total15": 384,
    "total60": 1547,
    "momentum": 0.8826100728539753,
    "diversity": 0.85,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 20,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 17
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 213,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9943466666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997644444444445
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4505462647843238
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.009471039237162554,
  "shareRatio": 0.9782799871010164,
  "totalAfter": 46563,
  "shareBefore": 0.00968213372305444,
  "totalBefore": 49266,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 441,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 477
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity