Ledger / Prediction #728 · token · 6H

Will $BJEF still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 6% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 15m ago. No social links. No hot term.

Made2026-10-10 10:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 16:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 09:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.0604014851376858
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "5ShHZ4sC6NNuV8FYR2vxitPi6Zc3TYYj1wZvjLHZ2E3r",
    "name": "Baby General Jef",
    "symbol": "BJEF",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 15,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 133,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3072.582687377491,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 441,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.0604014851376858
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 16:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.004

Log loss0.062

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": null,
  "marketCapUsd": 3072.582687377491,
  "athMarketCapUsd": null,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3072.582687377491,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6145.165374754982
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 6% that $BJEF would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,073, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $BJEF (6H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash6b11e7871138152e965376d68477c1936cb817f5fc28b3d6d7bd871f7f3b0934

Previous hash071c0d3fabef6c8dadb625d5b9cd98cec41379c001677393aa55f6b0af138b82