GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #729 · narrative · 1H

Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 61% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

112 of 1541 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (21 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 2.58×.

Made2026-10-10 10:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 11:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 10:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4663591438291491,
      "momentum": 0.9477476247231271,
      "diversity": -0.6749999999999999
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6080461710035319
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "uxento",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.18822170900692842,
    "share60": 0.07295719844357977,
    "total15": 432,
    "total60": 1541,
    "momentum": 2.5798922247882987,
    "diversity": 0.1875,
    "launches15": 81,
    "launches60": 112,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 21
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 240,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9991111111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9991111111111111
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6080461710035319
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 11:34 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.370
Log loss0.936
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.02509907529722589,
  "shareRatio": 0.3487730106343968,
  "totalAfter": 1514,
  "shareBefore": 0.07258587167854828,
  "totalBefore": 1543,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 38,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 112
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 61% that "uxento" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 7.26% → 2.51% (-65%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "uxento" (1H). momentum contributed +0.95 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash15d37fde4cc46564f6b2508d36965178fcbb1bf09214abeec45a2c3132a12b1f
Previous hash6b11e7871138152e965376d68477c1936cb817f5fc28b3d6d7bd871f7f3b0934