Ledger / Prediction #729 · narrative · 1H
Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 61% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
112 of 1541 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (21 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 2.58×.
Made2026-10-10 10:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 11:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 10:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.4663591438291491,
"momentum": 0.9477476247231271,
"diversity": -0.6749999999999999
},
"rawProbability": 0.6080461710035319
},
"features": {
"term": "uxento",
"rank60": 1,
"share15": 0.18822170900692842,
"share60": 0.07295719844357977,
"total15": 432,
"total60": 1541,
"momentum": 2.5798922247882987,
"diversity": 0.1875,
"launches15": 81,
"launches60": 112,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 21
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 240,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9991111111111111,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9991111111111111
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6080461710035319
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-10 11:34 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.370
Log loss0.936
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.02509907529722589,
"shareRatio": 0.3487730106343968,
"totalAfter": 1514,
"shareBefore": 0.07258587167854828,
"totalBefore": 1543,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 38,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 112
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 61% that "uxento" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 7.26% → 2.51% (-65%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "uxento" (1H). momentum contributed +0.95 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
15d37fde4cc46564f6b2508d36965178fcbb1bf09214abeec45a2c3132a12b1fPrevious hash
6b11e7871138152e965376d68477c1936cb817f5fc28b3d6d7bd871f7f3b0934