Will "crypto" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 34% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

39 of 1541 launches in the last hour referenced "crypto" (25 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.59×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3081185600543319,
      "momentum": -0.5344006688846998,
      "diversity": -0.1307692307692307
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3414022979262793
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "crypto",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.015011547344110854,
    "share60": 0.025616083009079117,
    "total15": 432,
    "total60": 1541,
    "momentum": 0.5860204051802262,
    "diversity": 0.6410256410256411,
    "launches15": 6,
    "launches60": 39,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 25
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 240,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9991111111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9991111111111111
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3414022979262793
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.009247027741083224,
  "shareRatio": 0.3741153862221665,
  "totalAfter": 1514,
  "shareBefore": 0.025275437459494492,
  "totalBefore": 1543,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 14,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 39
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity