Will "simple" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 31% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

12 of 1541 launches in the last hour referenced "simple" (4 distinct creators, rank #65). Last 15m momentum 0.71×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.13132031060308497,
      "momentum": -0.33934008631331547,
      "diversity": -0.5
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.31096454132819723
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "simple",
    "rank60": 65,
    "share15": 0.005773672055427252,
    "share60": 0.008106355382619975,
    "total15": 432,
    "total60": 1541,
    "momentum": 0.7122401847575057,
    "diversity": 0.3333333333333333,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 12,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 240,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9991111111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998518518518519
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.31096454132819723
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00722727659212652,
  "shareRatio": 0.9407567677573716,
  "totalAfter": 11761,
  "shareBefore": 0.007667031763417305,
  "totalBefore": 8217,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 85,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 63
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity