Will "cheese" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 56% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 1541 launches in the last hour referenced "cheese" (3 distinct creators, rank #212). Last 15m momentum 3.56×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 1.270097826120785,
      "diversity": -0.18000000000000002
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5609574968737769
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cheese",
    "rank60": 212,
    "share15": 0.012702078521939953,
    "share60": 0.0035667963683527885,
    "total15": 432,
    "total60": 1541,
    "momentum": 3.561200923787529,
    "diversity": 0.6,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 240,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9991111111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999629629629629
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5609574968737769
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00019415381296516017,
  "shareRatio": 0.3433472126548992,
  "totalAfter": 46355,
  "shareBefore": 0.0005867713412783522,
  "totalBefore": 49423,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 9,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 29
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity