Ledger / Prediction #746 · narrative · 1H

Will "read" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 22% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

47 of 1605 launches in the last hour referenced "read" (5 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.58×.

Made2026-10-10 11:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 12:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 10:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3361064533913937,
      "momentum": -0.5423198352518848,
      "diversity": -0.7723404255319148
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2177964981084782
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "read",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.017195767195767195,
    "share60": 0.029576587795765878,
    "total15": 377,
    "total60": 1605,
    "momentum": 0.5813979392926761,
    "diversity": 0.10638297872340426,
    "launches15": 6,
    "launches60": 47,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 258,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957505555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9957505555555556
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2177964981084782
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 12:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.047

Log loss0.246

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.006892230576441102,
  "shareRatio": 0.24392446363246878,
  "totalAfter": 1596,
  "shareBefore": 0.029228855721393034,
  "totalBefore": 1608,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 11,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 47
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 22% that "read" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.92% → 0.69% (-76%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "read" (1H). diversity contributed -0.77 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash15fd51c943c923267a3d45c6048d09d3b1151fd246514fde2553a02aadcee6e8

Previous hash46a38d52dc05257bcf958bad8c2960b004f590280c8f8e5caa95d7af8e5262f2