Will "energy" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 46% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

33 of 1605 launches in the last hour referenced "energy" (8 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 1.71×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.28306044735485697,
      "momentum": 0.5377519455004822,
      "diversity": -0.609090909090909
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4621239591414133
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "energy",
    "rank60": 10,
    "share15": 0.03571428571428571,
    "share60": 0.020859277708592777,
    "total15": 377,
    "total60": 1605,
    "momentum": 1.7121535181236673,
    "diversity": 0.24242424242424243,
    "launches15": 13,
    "launches60": 33,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 8
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 258,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957505555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9992917592592593
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4621239591414133
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.01220618556701031,
  "shareRatio": 0.9086950038296516,
  "totalAfter": 12125,
  "shareBefore": 0.013417035942885278,
  "totalBefore": 8124,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 148,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 109
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity