Ledger / Prediction #752 · narrative · 6H

Will "nobody" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 50% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 1605 launches in the last hour referenced "nobody" (5 distinct creators, rank #270). Last 15m momentum 1.16×.

Made2026-10-10 11:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 17:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 10:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 0.14732471475685854,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5032817779546095
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "nobody",
    "rank60": 270,
    "share15": 0.003968253968253968,
    "share60": 0.003424657534246575,
    "total15": 377,
    "total60": 1605,
    "momentum": 1.1587301587301588,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 258,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957505555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9992917592592593
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5032817779546095
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 17:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.253

Log loss0.700

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00288659793814433,
  "shareRatio": 0.8063287459080782,
  "totalAfter": 12125,
  "shareBefore": 0.003569670113244707,
  "totalBefore": 8124,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 35,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 29
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 50% that "nobody" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.36% → 0.29% (-19%). INCORRECT.

— diversity misled on "nobody" (6H). diversity contributed +0.30 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash1c1612f09e1f982ec4a624a9723685c83e0fa8adbd65b38f2e9f9f38781aeeff

Previous hash7fa815f5bf8f2ce331ed09fd1f36d7fd8fe20056c00777b8cdf206132d761f8a