Ledger / Prediction #76 · narrative · 1H

Will "clawpump" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 53% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 1199 launches in the last hour referenced "clawpump" (5 distinct creators, rank #192). Last 15m momentum 1.11×.

Made2026-10-09 10:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 11:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 09:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 0.10381849530601092,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5259313367421475
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "clawpump",
    "rank60": 192,
    "share15": 0.005084745762711864,
    "share60": 0.004583333333333333,
    "total15": 294,
    "total60": 1199,
    "momentum": 1.1093990755007703,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 128,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9979913888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9979913888888889
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5259313367421475
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 11:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.277

Log loss0.746

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.07827559260224017,
  "totalAfter": 1395,
  "shareBefore": 0.004163197335553705,
  "totalBefore": 1201,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 5
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 53% that "clawpump" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.42% → 0.00% (-100%). INCORRECT.

— diversity misled on "clawpump" (1H). diversity contributed +0.30 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash605f5f00d9729a192fdd3c025602f17f428cd3896cd2702099a7ca6c9a720f6f

Previous hash140c84be0d2a76513a7b0bcf387dda919800af2b246ddc35d35386cf6a14589b