Will "energy" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 38% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

41 of 1492 launches in the last hour referenced "energy" (10 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.13×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3156201231405311,
      "momentum": 0.1221260093263555,
      "diversity": -0.6073170731707317
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3847178012162019
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "energy",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.031407035175879394,
    "share60": 0.027796383121232417,
    "total15": 397,
    "total60": 1492,
    "momentum": 1.1298964703033239,
    "diversity": 0.24390243902439024,
    "launches15": 12,
    "launches60": 41,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 10
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 194,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9921055555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9921055555555556
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3847178012162019
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.02144133412745682,
  "shareRatio": 0.7931368330464715,
  "totalAfter": 1679,
  "shareBefore": 0.027080581241743725,
  "totalBefore": 1514,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 36,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 41
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity