Ledger / Prediction #766 · narrative · 6H

Will "character" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 50% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

37 of 1492 launches in the last hour referenced "character" (10 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 2.05×.

Made2026-10-10 11:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 17:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 11:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3002220000315186,
      "momentum": 0.71817474542275,
      "diversity": -0.5756756756756757
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5024761669677863
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "character",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.05150753768844221,
    "share60": 0.025117213663764234,
    "total15": 397,
    "total60": 1492,
    "momentum": 2.050686767169179,
    "diversity": 0.2702702702702703,
    "launches15": 20,
    "launches60": 37,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 10
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 194,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9921055555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9986842592592593
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5024761669677863
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 17:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.253

Log loss0.698

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.004633698170488136,
  "shareRatio": 0.42327953823841735,
  "totalAfter": 12517,
  "shareBefore": 0.010980966325036604,
  "totalBefore": 8196,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 58,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 90
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 50% that "character" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.10% → 0.46% (-58%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "character" (6H). momentum contributed +0.72 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashff8928af6d0d6da325a04e79630707a5df3d7f589bc042a8b07d7f5dc8c5fbb6

Previous hash06b2232a04be20197278df238ce2e06ae38b6b28b4bd9cc5ee909effa69720f1