Ledger / Prediction #769 · narrative · 24H
Will "solomon" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 16% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
40 of 1492 launches in the last hour referenced "solomon" (30 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.05×.
Made2026-10-10 11:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 11:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 11:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3119162312519754,
"momentum": -3.072358362417686,
"diversity": 0
},
"rawProbability": 0.15706619837751234
},
"features": {
"term": "solomon",
"rank60": 5,
"share15": 0.001256281407035176,
"share60": 0.02712659075686537,
"total15": 397,
"total60": 1492,
"momentum": 0.04631180594329673,
"diversity": 0.75,
"launches15": 0,
"launches60": 40,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 30
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 194,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9921055555555556,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996710648148148
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.15706619837751234
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 11:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.025
Log loss0.171
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.00010809408509166379,
"shareRatio": 0.13218843525170682,
"totalAfter": 46256,
"shareBefore": 0.0008893919793014231,
"totalBefore": 49472,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 5,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 44
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 16% that "solomon" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.09% → 0.01% (-88%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "solomon" (24H). momentum contributed -3.07 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
4430a3fa22d9b8bc554352269f2dad2ad44c28f9cb0769dcafce2c4678cd1f28Previous hash
23ab72dc13c8a189c00a780ac890f768f0ac5c2bddca3cb8f5b0d52d31fc5684