GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #769 · narrative · 24H

Will "solomon" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 16% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

40 of 1492 launches in the last hour referenced "solomon" (30 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.05×.

Made2026-10-10 11:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 11:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 11:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3119162312519754,
      "momentum": -3.072358362417686,
      "diversity": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.15706619837751234
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "solomon",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.001256281407035176,
    "share60": 0.02712659075686537,
    "total15": 397,
    "total60": 1492,
    "momentum": 0.04631180594329673,
    "diversity": 0.75,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 40,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 30
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 194,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9921055555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996710648148148
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.15706619837751234
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 11:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.025
Log loss0.171
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.00010809408509166379,
  "shareRatio": 0.13218843525170682,
  "totalAfter": 46256,
  "shareBefore": 0.0008893919793014231,
  "totalBefore": 49472,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 5,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 44
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 16% that "solomon" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.09% → 0.01% (-88%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "solomon" (24H). momentum contributed -3.07 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash4430a3fa22d9b8bc554352269f2dad2ad44c28f9cb0769dcafce2c4678cd1f28
Previous hash23ab72dc13c8a189c00a780ac890f768f0ac5c2bddca3cb8f5b0d52d31fc5684