Ledger / Prediction #772 · narrative · 24H
Will "mfrg" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 54% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
5 of 1492 launches in the last hour referenced "mfrg" (3 distinct creators, rank #235). Last 15m momentum 3.07×.
Made2026-10-10 11:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 11:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 11:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0,
"momentum": 1.1214200967926016,
"diversity": -0.18000000000000002
},
"rawProbability": 0.5425741711880601
},
"features": {
"term": "mfrg",
"rank60": 235,
"share15": 0.011306532663316583,
"share60": 0.003683858004018754,
"total15": 397,
"total60": 1492,
"momentum": 3.0692096847875745,
"diversity": 0.6,
"launches15": 4,
"launches60": 5,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 3
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 194,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9921055555555556,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996710648148148
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5425741711880601
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 11:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.209
Log loss0.611
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.003091490833621584,
"shareRatio": 1.7742980565603506,
"totalAfter": 46256,
"shareBefore": 0.0017383570504527813,
"totalBefore": 49472,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 143,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 86
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 54% that "mfrg" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.17% → 0.31% (+78%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "mfrg" (24H). momentum contributed +1.12 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
885218ac7129321b57d2b67c507fad02b4b903aae09dbe202bc60cc72fe905c6Previous hash
c02ba6fed9c19e409f661441d4096cc6a3aa20e4380d23c27a5beed12e2d48c3