Will "putin" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 17% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

40 of 1590 launches in the last hour referenced "putin" (19 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 0.15×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3119162312519754,
      "momentum": -1.8665182127932431,
      "diversity": -0.33
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.1653122784212098
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "putin",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.003937007874015748,
    "share60": 0.02545568824638592,
    "total15": 380,
    "total60": 1590,
    "momentum": 0.1546612229026927,
    "diversity": 0.475,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 40,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 19
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 223,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9968711111111112,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9994785185185185
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.1653122784212098
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0009697873927638941,
  "shareRatio": 0.20596424186976162,
  "totalAfter": 13405,
  "shareBefore": 0.004830917874396135,
  "totalBefore": 8487,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 13,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 41
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity