Ledger / Prediction #783 · narrative · 6H

Will "put" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 43% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

38 of 1590 launches in the last hour referenced "put" (23 distinct creators, rank #12). Last 15m momentum 0.92×.

Made2026-10-10 12:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 18:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 11:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3042222370938428,
      "momentum": -0.0812734245863819,
      "diversity": -0.1736842105263158
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.43400853995351657
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "put",
    "rank60": 12,
    "share15": 0.02230971128608924,
    "share60": 0.024198617221873036,
    "total15": 380,
    "total60": 1590,
    "momentum": 0.9219415754848825,
    "diversity": 0.6052631578947368,
    "launches15": 8,
    "launches60": 38,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 23
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 223,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9968711111111112,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9994785185185185
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.43400853995351657
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 18:04 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.188

Log loss0.569

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.002237970906378217,
  "shareRatio": 0.3609542944225002,
  "totalAfter": 13405,
  "shareBefore": 0.006244845057146223,
  "totalBefore": 8487,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 30,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 53
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 43% that "put" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.62% → 0.22% (-64%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "put" (6H). diversity contributed -0.17 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash121017da3ed1045af546ebb9f4a04570da23d127c86c6efe0a7c7059d34ea50b

Previous hash4247a08394c037cc73a27e71c031d6b0bf8ac96c48d748881a7a01e517291662