Will "represents" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 39% → FADES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
28 of 1590 launches in the last hour referenced "represents" (6 distinct creators, rank #17). Last 15m momentum 1.10×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.2584149896611655,
"momentum": 0.0943175864787458,
"diversity": -0.6428571428571428
},
"rawProbability": 0.3905353917413273
},
"features": {
"term": "represents",
"rank60": 17,
"share15": 0.01968503937007874,
"share60": 0.017913262099308613,
"total15": 380,
"total60": 1590,
"momentum": 1.0989086890454483,
"diversity": 0.21428571428571427,
"launches15": 7,
"launches60": 28,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 6
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 223,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9968711111111112,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998696296296297
}{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.3905353917413273
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.0035432471795317695,
"shareRatio": 0.93321328072729,
"totalAfter": 46003,
"shareBefore": 0.003798363471057683,
"totalBefore": 49495,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 163,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 188
}Predicted 39% that "represents" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.38% → 0.35% (-7%). PARTIAL.
— "represents" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
490caaadaed29f32d3269fc02ab3935d1069ea2e602a903ca89175aa0447ce3d734436c22605cccb05e6a6063775a78fc7683e779983d5168d0e0b783db2a065