Will "start" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 50% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

6 of 1668 launches in the last hour referenced "start" (6 distinct creators, rank #194). Last 15m momentum 0.98×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.027348233519093188,
      "momentum": -0.025242910032713912,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5005263306771864
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "start",
    "rank60": 194,
    "share15": 0.0037974683544303796,
    "share60": 0.0038945476333133613,
    "total15": 394,
    "total60": 1668,
    "momentum": 0.9750730282375851,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 6,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 246,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935311111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9935311111111111
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5005263306771864
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0029171528588098016,
  "shareRatio": 0.8288854003139717,
  "totalAfter": 1714,
  "shareBefore": 0.00357355568790947,
  "totalBefore": 1679,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 5,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 6
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity