Will "trending" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 19% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

17 of 1668 launches in the last hour referenced "trending" (17 distinct creators, rank #48). Last 15m momentum 0.12×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.18356631474331733,
      "momentum": -2.1142539027287004,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.191316063782973
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "trending",
    "rank60": 48,
    "share15": 0.0012658227848101266,
    "share60": 0.010485320551228281,
    "total15": 394,
    "total60": 1668,
    "momentum": 0.12072332730560578,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 17,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 17
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 246,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935311111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9989218518518519
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.191316063782973
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0023625429553264603,
  "shareRatio": 0.41561902628805364,
  "totalAfter": 13968,
  "shareBefore": 0.005713632727688264,
  "totalBefore": 8751,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 33,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 50
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity