Ledger / Prediction #81 · token · 1H

Will $ROGCAN still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 4% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 11m ago. No social links. Rides hot term "blockchain". Creator launched 41 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-09 10:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 11:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 09:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.03752722974296934
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "xnmvdGjY2ZzRogcdktd6Vdj2Zj5rK6hXGYSXrFJpump",
    "name": "Rogue Cannon",
    "symbol": "ROGCAN",
    "hotTerms": [
      "blockchain"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 11,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 77,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 9035.708989279361,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 41
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 395,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.03752722974296934
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 11:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.001

Log loss0.038

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-09T09:49:31.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 9035.708989279361,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 9303.625641224331,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 9035.708989279361,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 18071.417978558722
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 4% that $ROGCAN would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $9,036, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $ROGCAN (1H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash01bf583a7f39052128aafcec28c79b02cb23181f8f6c5d9eb2af319f9413caab

Previous hash029c3e3d8b1674e4b1e1e4fb1571126293f45dc1cc812f74b6ac7afc43495d10