Ledger / Prediction #812 · narrative · 1H
Will "king" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 54% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
7 of 1680 launches in the last hour referenced "king" (6 distinct creators, rank #138). Last 15m momentum 1.31×.
Made2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 14:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.050470835493181924,
"momentum": 0.2717478315118815,
"diversity": 0.1285714285714285
},
"rawProbability": 0.5376262565005306
},
"features": {
"term": "king",
"rank60": 138,
"share15": 0.00585480093676815,
"share60": 0.00446162998215348,
"total15": 426,
"total60": 1680,
"momentum": 1.3122560499609681,
"diversity": 0.8571428571428571,
"launches15": 2,
"launches60": 7,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 6
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 212,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9988261111111111,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9988261111111111
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5376262565005306
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-10 14:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.289
Log loss0.771
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0033632286995515697,
"shareRatio": 0.8171428571428572,
"totalAfter": 1784,
"shareBefore": 0.004161712247324614,
"totalBefore": 1682,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 6,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 7
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 54% that "king" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.42% → 0.34% (-19%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "king" (1H). momentum contributed +0.27 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
1c599fd27b20f0ccceb06ce7e26e013f642259727c110f97e36e2d8d930f1664Previous hash
0d903d83872ac120fffc30852b51e1b727eabe11f91a108dd78b4d9a25a539c9