Will "candle" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 21% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

47 of 1680 launches in the last hour referenced "candle" (3 distinct creators, rank #12). Last 15m momentum 0.37×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3361064533913937,
      "momentum": -0.9862921940843306,
      "diversity": -0.823404255319149
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.20890920786188358
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "candle",
    "rank60": 12,
    "share15": 0.01053864168618267,
    "share60": 0.02825698988697204,
    "total15": 426,
    "total60": 1680,
    "momentum": 0.3729569826204856,
    "diversity": 0.06382978723404255,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 47,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 212,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9988261111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998043518518519
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.20890920786188358
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.001599666156628182,
  "shareRatio": 0.2895834753514993,
  "totalAfter": 14378,
  "shareBefore": 0.005588465407399128,
  "totalBefore": 8947,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 23,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 50
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity