Will "pepper" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 61% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
55 of 1680 launches in the last hour referenced "pepper" (34 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 3.65×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.35968429091975557,
"momentum": 1.2955589070972926,
"diversity": -0.1581818181818182
},
"rawProbability": 0.6102898355757388
},
"features": {
"term": "pepper",
"rank60": 8,
"share15": 0.12060889929742388,
"share60": 0.03301606186793575,
"total15": 426,
"total60": 1680,
"momentum": 3.6530371120535055,
"diversity": 0.6181818181818182,
"launches15": 51,
"launches60": 55,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 34
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 212,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9988261111111111,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.999951087962963
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6102898355757388
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.005936718495161465,
"shareRatio": 4.847230903548438,
"totalAfter": 45985,
"shareBefore": 0.0012168657594256393,
"totalBefore": 49307,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 273,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 60
}Predicted 61% that "pepper" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.12% → 0.59% (+388%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "pepper" (24H). momentum contributed +1.30 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
8f7ba545d760e9104ccc9910b4239363e20481fff7c94eb7937fd69d6497118acf3b03e5b9c3449613db13273cd6cb750f9b02014a862a40e04f90d5ee01b979