GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #817 · narrative · 24H

Will "pepper" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 61% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

55 of 1680 launches in the last hour referenced "pepper" (34 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 3.65×.

Made2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 13:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.35968429091975557,
      "momentum": 1.2955589070972926,
      "diversity": -0.1581818181818182
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6102898355757388
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "pepper",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.12060889929742388,
    "share60": 0.03301606186793575,
    "total15": 426,
    "total60": 1680,
    "momentum": 3.6530371120535055,
    "diversity": 0.6181818181818182,
    "launches15": 51,
    "launches60": 55,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 34
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 212,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9988261111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999951087962963
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6102898355757388
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 13:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.152
Log loss0.494
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.005936718495161465,
  "shareRatio": 4.847230903548438,
  "totalAfter": 45985,
  "shareBefore": 0.0012168657594256393,
  "totalBefore": 49307,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 273,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 60
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 61% that "pepper" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.12% → 0.59% (+388%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "pepper" (24H). momentum contributed +1.30 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash8f7ba545d760e9104ccc9910b4239363e20481fff7c94eb7937fd69d6497118a
Previous hashcf3b03e5b9c3449613db13273cd6cb750f9b02014a862a40e04f90d5ee01b979