GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #819 · narrative · 24H

Will "send" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 53% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

37 of 1680 launches in the last hour referenced "send" (7 distinct creators, rank #16). Last 15m momentum 3.31×.

Made2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 13:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3002220000315186,
      "momentum": 1.196006733035213,
      "diversity": -0.6729729729729729
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5278780275162728
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "send",
    "rank60": 16,
    "share15": 0.07377049180327869,
    "share60": 0.022308149910767402,
    "total15": 426,
    "total60": 1680,
    "momentum": 3.306885245901639,
    "diversity": 0.1891891891891892,
    "launches15": 31,
    "launches60": 37,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 212,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9988261111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999951087962963
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5278780275162728
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 13:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.223
Log loss0.639
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.006523866478199413,
  "shareRatio": 1.195576745265781,
  "totalAfter": 45985,
  "shareBefore": 0.00545561482142495,
  "totalBefore": 49307,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 300,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 269
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 53% that "send" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.55% → 0.65% (+20%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "send" (24H). momentum contributed +1.20 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashb7e98549dfc3a08ae0765f2bddb0be13462a31a8b69c0dc38022cb5772521e5c
Previous hashb7aed825aa402fabd5d4a2ace260fe0977d9d64b2f5acdd109ccc300495517c4