Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 42% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

158 of 1712 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (11 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 1.31×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.5179735680889299,
      "momentum": 0.2685044185386276,
      "diversity": -0.8164556962025316
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.42043586158266144
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "uxento",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.12102689486552567,
    "share60": 0.09252772913018097,
    "total15": 408,
    "total60": 1712,
    "momentum": 1.3080067564961861,
    "diversity": 0.06962025316455696,
    "launches15": 49,
    "launches60": 158,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 11
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 204,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957733333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9992955555555556
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.42043586158266144
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.037019554956169924,
  "shareRatio": 0.8776431275080373,
  "totalAfter": 14830,
  "shareBefore": 0.042166720726565035,
  "totalBefore": 9249,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 549,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 390
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity