GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #833 · narrative · 24H

Will "massimo" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 38% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

115 of 1712 launches in the last hour referenced "massimo" (3 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.00×.

Made2026-10-10 13:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 13:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 13:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.47032413238937243,
      "momentum": -0.0027981830080044726,
      "diversity": -0.8686956521739131
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3774032363958314
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "massimo",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.06723716381418093,
    "share60": 0.06742556917688267,
    "total15": 408,
    "total60": 1712,
    "momentum": 0.997205728257073,
    "diversity": 0.02608695652173913,
    "launches15": 27,
    "launches60": 115,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 204,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957733333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998238888888888
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3774032363958314
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 13:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.388
Log loss0.974
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.016590002398029255,
  "shareRatio": 7.0762858667898785,
  "totalAfter": 45871,
  "shareBefore": 0.0023358316576280137,
  "totalBefore": 49233,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 761,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 115
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 38% that "massimo" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.23% → 1.66% (+610%). INCORRECT.

— diversity misled on "massimo" (24H). diversity contributed -0.87 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash2c718c6b2754f4ecd299d8016191339a64d9e6a6f37c0aeca7358abaab33dc7e
Previous hash6f594132fdf1410acc820c81e7883415891df9b2fbfd978b66afc9cad8f940f1