Will "account" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 17% → FADES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
86 of 1712 launches in the last hour referenced "account" (3 distinct creators, rank #11). Last 15m momentum 0.12×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.4267364075729111,
"momentum": -2.1115673397823604,
"diversity": -0.858139534883721
},
"rawProbability": 0.17200476301654408
},
"features": {
"term": "account",
"rank60": 11,
"share15": 0.006112469437652812,
"share60": 0.05049620548744892,
"total15": 408,
"total60": 1712,
"momentum": 0.12104809418149443,
"diversity": 0.03488372093023256,
"launches15": 2,
"launches60": 86,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 3
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 204,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9957733333333333,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998238888888888
}{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.17200476301654408
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.004425453990538684,
"shareRatio": 1.3117999844979265,
"totalAfter": 45871,
"shareBefore": 0.003371722218836959,
"totalBefore": 49233,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 203,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 166
}Predicted 17% that "account" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.34% → 0.44% (+31%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "account" (24H). momentum contributed -2.11 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.
— Overconfident: 83% and wrong on "account". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.
2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
25d573798ca25c484a56452282a6dc9eb107b98e652e1d7eb36422c6ee86e925638d5e31bbe2d9fb9946750ef8f19839b4c4e1ac6efda7b7debb5a88033281f3