Ledger / Prediction #843 · narrative · 1H

Will "tiktok" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 9% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

86 of 1776 launches in the last hour referenced "tiktok" (6 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 0.20×.

Made2026-10-10 14:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 15:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 13:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4267364075729111,
      "momentum": -1.6345925107019847,
      "diversity": -0.8162790697674418
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.08914372425967733
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "tiktok",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.00949367088607595,
    "share60": 0.04867754642656162,
    "total15": 473,
    "total60": 1776,
    "momentum": 0.195031828491988,
    "diversity": 0.06976744186046512,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 86,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 221,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9927086111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9927086111111111
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.08914372425967733
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 15:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.008

Log loss0.093

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.004688832054560955,
  "shareRatio": 0.10111296920678471,
  "totalAfter": 2346,
  "shareBefore": 0.04820627802690583,
  "totalBefore": 1784,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 11,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 86
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 9% that "tiktok" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.82% → 0.47% (-90%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "tiktok" (1H). momentum contributed -1.63 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash3b443aa865c8f02eefc43b5885b34f6f3951505e12c85fed3f0a9b69cbf14423

Previous hashb1d5eedfd47fd57a83dc00897363374b908483b899237cba64a98b861b668b0c