Ledger / Prediction #845 · narrative · 6H

Will "memecoin" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 15% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

102 of 1776 launches in the last hour referenced "memecoin" (16 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.16×.

Made2026-10-10 14:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 20:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 13:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.45233023512752557,
      "momentum": -1.804310895342614,
      "diversity": -0.711764705882353
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.14872683658783936
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "memecoin",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.00949367088607595,
    "share60": 0.057681485649971866,
    "total15": 473,
    "total60": 1776,
    "momentum": 0.16458783575177524,
    "diversity": 0.1568627450980392,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 102,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 16
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 221,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9927086111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9987847685185185
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.14872683658783936
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 20:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.022

Log loss0.161

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.019400236748651847,
  "shareRatio": 0.6543766568097468,
  "totalAfter": 15206,
  "shareBefore": 0.029645924994762204,
  "totalBefore": 9546,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 295,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 283
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 15% that "memecoin" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 2.96% → 1.94% (-35%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "memecoin" (6H). momentum contributed -1.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash0a8166963c79fdd9fcb7f706660933a5aa0d6df877f4be2cd99aea159c8c654d

Previous hash7753fa1eee53ba48daaff936b708ebe3852de30b930afe1810ef23061c715599