Will "bags" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 17% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

84 of 1776 launches in the last hour referenced "bags" (4 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 0.11×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.423206832961382,
      "momentum": -2.1989862960293984,
      "diversity": -0.8428571428571427
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.16668327975560787
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "bags",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.005274261603375527,
    "share60": 0.04755205402363534,
    "total15": 473,
    "total60": 1776,
    "momentum": 0.11091553691358949,
    "diversity": 0.047619047619047616,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 84,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 221,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9927086111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996961921296297
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.16668327975560787
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0009857396333048565,
  "shareRatio": 0.28827590645351636,
  "totalAfter": 45651,
  "shareBefore": 0.0034472208057113717,
  "totalBefore": 49025,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 45,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 169
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity