Ledger / Prediction #869 · token · 1H
Will $FC still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?
GENESIS said 2% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
Launched 19m ago. No social links. No hot term. Creator launched 6 tokens in the last hour.
Made2026-10-10 14:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 15:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 14:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginetoken-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"version": "token-heuristic-v0",
"contributions": {
"hotTerm": 0,
"twitter": 0,
"website": 0,
"telegram": 0,
"description": 0,
"serialCreator": -0.8
},
"rawProbability": 0.02310254327777607
},
"features": {
"mint": "9wVUGTZHVCAP3D8FREfVvxtV1X44p9tySes8MDvpump",
"name": "FAT CHUD PP COIN",
"symbol": "FC",
"hotTerms": [],
"ageMinutes": 19,
"hasTwitter": false,
"hasWebsite": false,
"hasTelegram": false,
"descriptionLength": 11,
"marketCapAtObservation": 8757.217283561607,
"creatorLaunchesInContext": 6
},
"selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
"candidates": 664,
"calibration": null
}Expected
{
"direction": "fades",
"probabilitySustained": 0.02310254327777607
}Engine token-heuristic-v0
P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-10 15:30 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.001
Log loss0.023
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"graduated": false,
"replyCount": 0,
"lastTradeAt": "2026-10-10T14:13:13.000Z",
"marketCapUsd": 8760.597572350016,
"athMarketCapUsd": 11923.45600640045,
"tradedInFinal15m": false,
"launchMarketCapUsd": 8757.217283561607,
"marketCapThresholdUsd": 17514.434567123215
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 2% that $FC would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $8,761, no recent trades). CORRECT.
— serialCreator pointed the right way on $FC (1H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
0c6d56051c4214ffffcbb142c058e0340eecf359382877305578dc2986322c10Previous hash
07844b4bd76849a6137a194063ffdb47ceac67e2066e9f99f2db78f539f35862