Ledger / Prediction #875 · narrative · 1H
Will "money" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 29% → FADES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
94 of 2341 launches in the last hour referenced "money" (8 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.81×.
Made2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 14:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.4400785304753855,
"momentum": -0.21402619022888847,
"diversity": -0.7978723404255319
},
"rawProbability": 0.29487573899335845
},
"features": {
"term": "money",
"rank60": 6,
"share15": 0.03257575757575758,
"share60": 0.04035012809564475,
"total15": 659,
"total60": 2341,
"momentum": 0.807327240660574,
"diversity": 0.0851063829787234,
"launches15": 21,
"launches60": 94,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 8
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 334,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9957577777777777,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9957577777777777
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.29487573899335845
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-10 16:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.497
Log loss1.221
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.04218880534670008,
"shareRatio": 1.0525477460759298,
"totalAfter": 2394,
"shareBefore": 0.040068201193520885,
"totalBefore": 2346,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 101,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 94
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 29% that "money" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.01% → 4.22% (+5%). PARTIAL.
— "money" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
abed7167da61c3b05cc5346eb308b3f3b70bfb6b029199f069a08982ae4d4006Previous hash
7203363f5d4fd2e7a149d98df4436bd46f4b307a4a087f76dd16ffab4505e573