Ledger / Prediction #879 · narrative · 6H

Will "unfazed" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 34% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

74 of 2341 launches in the last hour referenced "unfazed" (32 distinct creators, rank #12). Last 15m momentum 0.60×.

Made2026-10-10 15:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 21:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 14:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.40419407711551036,
      "momentum": -0.5185497719400668,
      "diversity": -0.381081081081081
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.34370971639146397
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "unfazed",
    "rank60": 12,
    "share15": 0.01893939393939394,
    "share60": 0.03181041844577284,
    "total15": 659,
    "total60": 2341,
    "momentum": 0.5953833638397398,
    "diversity": 0.43243243243243246,
    "launches15": 12,
    "launches60": 74,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 32
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 334,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957577777777777,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999292962962963
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.34370971639146397
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 21:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.118

Log loss0.421

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.002894076789504148,
  "shareRatio": 0.415223461878763,
  "totalAfter": 15549,
  "shareBefore": 0.007000283795288998,
  "totalBefore": 10571,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 45,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 74
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 34% that "unfazed" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.70% → 0.29% (-59%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "unfazed" (6H). momentum contributed -0.52 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash3e92a4dedc5f6fd66ba97bd7d32623fad6bc11db56c8e78c233fed2f1dad1a9b

Previous hash749c65d1f4982574acefd9b58c360e5206a5012584da6d2713c893ebc8974cd4