Will "locked" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 46% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

8 of 1252 launches in the last hour referenced "locked" (6 distinct creators, rank #134). Last 15m momentum 1.06×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.07050054438686033,
      "momentum": 0.060195743327093286,
      "diversity": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4577748846125457
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "locked",
    "rank60": 134,
    "share15": 0.007204610951008645,
    "share60": 0.006783719074221868,
    "total15": 346,
    "total60": 1252,
    "momentum": 1.0620444143075096,
    "diversity": 0.75,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 8,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 142,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9949219444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9949219444444445
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4577748846125457
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.05067811572104968,
  "totalAfter": 1465,
  "shareBefore": 0.006339144215530904,
  "totalBefore": 1262,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 8
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity