GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #883 · narrative · 24H

Will "claim" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 16% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

59 of 2341 launches in the last hour referenced "claim" (10 distinct creators, rank #15). Last 15m momentum 0.09×.

Made2026-10-10 15:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 15:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 14:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3702149297207429,
      "momentum": -2.413990495306228,
      "diversity": -0.6966101694915254
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.15839846628953416
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "claim",
    "rank60": 15,
    "share15": 0.0022727272727272726,
    "share60": 0.025405636208368915,
    "total15": 659,
    "total60": 2341,
    "momentum": 0.0894576012223071,
    "diversity": 0.1694915254237288,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 59,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 10
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 334,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957577777777777,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998232407407407
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.15839846628953416
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 15:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.708
Log loss1.843
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0032356721776517,
  "shareRatio": 1.0054879788445057,
  "totalAfter": 45122,
  "shareBefore": 0.0032188404025587742,
  "totalBefore": 49086,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 146,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 158
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 16% that "claim" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.32% → 0.32% (+1%). PARTIAL.

— "claim" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashc019bc6b6803ed51e1e016ee81deafc3b28b404056cf16e7676c855fa4173332
Previous hashb1aef83d66dfb62fd9ba513242d0b958af3694244e2276e1876e5c00be9d00b6