Ledger / Prediction #890 · narrative · 1H

Will "silicon" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 32% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

148 of 2605 launches in the last hour referenced "silicon" (71 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.52×.

Made2026-10-10 15:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 16:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 15:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.5081661541995022,
      "momentum": -0.647837139456592,
      "diversity": -0.32432432432432434
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3177794704609351
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "silicon",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.029812606473594547,
    "share60": 0.05698388334612433,
    "total15": 586,
    "total60": 2605,
    "momentum": 0.5231761109103528,
    "diversity": 0.4797297297297297,
    "launches15": 17,
    "launches60": 148,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 71
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 336,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935116666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9935116666666667
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3177794704609351
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 16:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.101

Log loss0.382

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.019434628975265017,
  "shareRatio": 0.34821801532618313,
  "totalAfter": 2264,
  "shareBefore": 0.05625237552261497,
  "totalBefore": 2631,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 44,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 148
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 32% that "silicon" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 5.63% → 1.94% (-65%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "silicon" (1H). momentum contributed -0.65 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash26a0d182eff40341eedffba069834ccbbf2925ceeda7044bd992a3428fa07aef

Previous hash2bee8065e3b31d9f9f9e6e8689d0ff49fb1f7fbbc4cb6c357a1898323e03ad82