GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #892 · narrative · 1H

Will "without" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 69% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 2605 launches in the last hour referenced "without" (4 distinct creators, rank #391). Last 15m momentum 2.83×.

Made2026-10-10 15:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 16:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 15:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 1.0385618141136368,
      "diversity": 0.06000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6896667551977087
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "without",
    "rank60": 391,
    "share15": 0.00596252129471891,
    "share60": 0.002110514198004605,
    "total15": 586,
    "total60": 2605,
    "momentum": 2.8251509989159054,
    "diversity": 0.8,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 336,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935116666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9935116666666667
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6896667551977087
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 16:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.096
Log loss0.371
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.002208480565371025,
  "shareRatio": 1.1620309050772628,
  "totalAfter": 2264,
  "shareBefore": 0.0019004180919802356,
  "totalBefore": 2631,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 5,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 5
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 69% that "without" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.19% → 0.22% (+16%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "without" (1H). momentum contributed +1.04 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash44ca54f662f8c72eba0dca564558e6047411841a82a617590cb0d2751378e355
Previous hash653b6c915923ee0657c65fd20c7125784cca1d62f9bdc51ec514c9c0a1f4fc21