Will "musk" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 34% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

64 of 2605 launches in the last hour referenced "musk" (13 distinct creators, rank #13). Last 15m momentum 0.79×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3824167756388357,
      "momentum": -0.23377125057582832,
      "diversity": -0.65625
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.341790986157218
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "musk",
    "rank60": 13,
    "share15": 0.019591141396933562,
    "share60": 0.024750575594781273,
    "total15": 586,
    "total60": 2605,
    "momentum": 0.7915428601613778,
    "diversity": 0.203125,
    "launches15": 11,
    "launches60": 64,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 13
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 336,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935116666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9989186111111111
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.341790986157218
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.006170033123335715,
  "shareRatio": 0.5413235741821611,
  "totalAfter": 15397,
  "shareBefore": 0.01141304347826087,
  "totalBefore": 11040,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 95,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 126
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity