Will "call" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 23% → FADES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
62 of 2605 launches in the last hour referenced "call" (18 distinct creators, rank #14). Last 15m momentum 0.32×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.37765447089164866,
"momentum": -1.140542222109388,
"diversity": -0.5516129032258064
},
"rawProbability": 0.22790997382437345
},
"features": {
"term": "call",
"rank60": 14,
"share15": 0.007666098807495741,
"share60": 0.023983115886415964,
"total15": 586,
"total60": 2605,
"momentum": 0.3196456558773424,
"diversity": 0.2903225806451613,
"launches15": 4,
"launches60": 62,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 18
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 336,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9935116666666667,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9989186111111111
}{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.22790997382437345
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.01441839319347925,
"shareRatio": 1.4704300576470821,
"totalAfter": 15397,
"shareBefore": 0.009782608695652175,
"totalBefore": 11040,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 222,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 108
}Predicted 23% that "call" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.98% → 1.44% (+47%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "call" (6H). momentum contributed -1.14 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.
— Overconfident: 77% and wrong on "call". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.
2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
776a9e26ed8d937d6ae302bf27d4cc57c9eacfd94427a426f2b59256675d7b92249007ba13f654fa840c2feaace82c80e85f201cb21cbe8431a91240462ec7d8