Will "confirmed" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 21% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

8 of 2605 launches in the last hour referenced "confirmed" (5 distinct creators, rank #190). Last 15m momentum 0.26×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.07050054438686033,
      "momentum": -1.3426664061995222,
      "diversity": -0.15
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.21492061658650718
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "confirmed",
    "rank60": 190,
    "share15": 0.0008517887563884157,
    "share60": 0.003261703760552571,
    "total15": 586,
    "total60": 2605,
    "momentum": 0.26114841166449543,
    "diversity": 0.625,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 8,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 336,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935116666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9989186111111111
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.21492061658650718
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0033123335714749626,
  "shareRatio": 3.8871179442306247,
  "totalAfter": 15397,
  "shareBefore": 0.0008152173913043478,
  "totalBefore": 11040,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 51,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 9
}

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity