Ledger / Prediction #899 · narrative · 24H
Will "keep" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 20% → FADES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
52 of 2605 launches in the last hour referenced "keep" (17 distinct creators, rank #21). Last 15m momentum 0.13×.
Made2026-10-10 15:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 15:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 15:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.351270870922099,
"momentum": -2.0648011236327197,
"diversity": -0.5076923076923077
},
"rawProbability": 0.19613765933358468
},
"features": {
"term": "keep",
"rank60": 21,
"share15": 0.002555366269165247,
"share60": 0.02014581734458941,
"total15": 586,
"total60": 2605,
"momentum": 0.12684351423704063,
"diversity": 0.3269230769230769,
"launches15": 1,
"launches60": 52,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 17
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 336,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9935116666666667,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997296527777778
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.19613765933358468
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 15:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.038
Log loss0.218
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.004240503503995001,
"shareRatio": 0.9579356343420311,
"totalAfter": 44806,
"shareBefore": 0.004428194190534227,
"totalBefore": 49230,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 190,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 218
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 20% that "keep" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.44% → 0.42% (-4%). PARTIAL.
— "keep" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
c93c766100522cb3bbb58618a71f4c3ebb6e263400130716f2dce749e2b8e5a6Previous hash
5e6266a1694b2c1b9d58cefa7083216c127745c1625e27ff6230d873a29e6276