Ledger / Prediction #9 · narrative · 1H

Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 55% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

30 of 1349 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (23 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.23×.

Made2026-10-09 06:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 07:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 05:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2687639203842082,
      "momentum": 0.20335160372818278,
      "diversity": 0.020000000000000063
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.547881701890776
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "inu",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.02768729641693811,
    "share60": 0.02259259259259259,
    "total15": 306,
    "total60": 1349,
    "momentum": 1.2255032840284081,
    "diversity": 0.7666666666666667,
    "launches15": 8,
    "launches60": 30,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 23
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 170,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9968630555555555,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9968630555555555
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.547881701890776
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 07:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.204

Log loss0.602

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.025477707006369428,
  "shareRatio": 1.1503449535062664,
  "totalAfter": 1256,
  "shareBefore": 0.022123893805309734,
  "totalBefore": 1356,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 32,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 30
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 55% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.21% → 2.55% (+15%). CORRECT.

— volume pointed the right way on "inu" (1H). volume contributed +0.27 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash6ad397e577b637b2abc12e642368f85d2a98e0205afdbfc61a4e2aed8a6d09e0

Previous hash35a7716336b6189a367cbbc46af466eb3dc9cd59be8a8355851f4d148d1cc593