Ledger / Prediction #905 · narrative · 1H

Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 32% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

178 of 2388 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (13 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.86×.

Made2026-10-10 16:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 17:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 16:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.5358518456786977,
      "momentum": -0.15590469938390572,
      "diversity": -0.8123595505617978
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3246655653114606
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "uxento",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.06393129770992366,
    "share60": 0.07471745500209293,
    "total15": 523,
    "total60": 2388,
    "momentum": 0.8556407295742724,
    "diversity": 0.07303370786516854,
    "launches15": 33,
    "launches60": 178,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 13
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 343,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9988219444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9988219444444445
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3246655653114606
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 17:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.105

Log loss0.393

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0482135170038743,
  "shareRatio": 0.6495067906680745,
  "totalAfter": 2323,
  "shareBefore": 0.07435254803675856,
  "totalBefore": 2394,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 112,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 178
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 32% that "uxento" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 7.44% → 4.82% (-35%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "uxento" (1H). diversity contributed -0.81 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash9067a88f0a7d5c1923f2dc62d40e95c2b787b5234b5a335c6ce82cdb9ba11d6b

Previous hashe1ed372abbee3345b519d4c426f728eefd51f5185ecafb862e57a31249f99539