Ledger / Prediction #910 · narrative · 6H

Will "agents" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 33% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

59 of 2388 launches in the last hour referenced "agents" (24 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 0.57×.

Made2026-10-10 16:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 22:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 16:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3702149297207429,
      "momentum": -0.553934829004552,
      "diversity": -0.41186440677966096
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3280740018678812
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "agents",
    "rank60": 10,
    "share15": 0.01431297709923664,
    "share60": 0.024905818334030976,
    "total15": 523,
    "total60": 2388,
    "momentum": 0.5746840721021232,
    "diversity": 0.4067796610169492,
    "launches15": 7,
    "launches60": 59,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 24
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 343,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9988219444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998036574074074
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3280740018678812
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 22:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.108

Log loss0.398

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.006349206349206349,
  "shareRatio": 0.48063183488600225,
  "totalAfter": 15435,
  "shareBefore": 0.013234005258545135,
  "totalBefore": 11410,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 98,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 151
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 33% that "agents" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.32% → 0.63% (-52%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "agents" (6H). momentum contributed -0.55 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash377240b3bcda4fd10e4bc3595d12fcd7d4854b9d11cef261e2fe7aaf1faa9463

Previous hashbb3495925399e3c40ae8add5cb5983281cd195453bdfdee65a4a2a5ddca30cdb