Ledger / Prediction #911 · narrative · 6H

Will "cap" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 25% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

55 of 2388 launches in the last hour referenced "cap" (19 distinct creators, rank #12). Last 15m momentum 0.37×.

Made2026-10-10 16:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 22:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 16:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.35968429091975557,
      "momentum": -0.9951671609713473,
      "diversity": -0.4854545454545454
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2526258875050196
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cap",
    "rank60": 12,
    "share15": 0.008587786259541985,
    "share60": 0.023231477605692757,
    "total15": 523,
    "total60": 2388,
    "momentum": 0.3696616463792037,
    "diversity": 0.34545454545454546,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 55,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 19
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 343,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9988219444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998036574074074
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2526258875050196
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 22:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.064

Log loss0.291

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.005442176870748299,
  "shareRatio": 0.7480991631662821,
  "totalAfter": 15435,
  "shareBefore": 0.007274320771253287,
  "totalBefore": 11410,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 84,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 83
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 25% that "cap" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.73% → 0.54% (-25%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "cap" (6H). momentum contributed -1.00 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashfe43b5f90449e7925d992334c9af5fcb26e99b90958d660bb495767ed3403913

Previous hash377240b3bcda4fd10e4bc3595d12fcd7d4854b9d11cef261e2fe7aaf1faa9463