Ledger / Prediction #912 · narrative · 6H

Will "charts" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 46% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

6 of 2388 launches in the last hour referenced "charts" (5 distinct creators, rank #259). Last 15m momentum 1.05×.

Made2026-10-10 16:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 22:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 16:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.027348233519093188,
      "momentum": 0.050801394211340264,
      "diversity": 0.10000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4562880608351947
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "charts",
    "rank60": 259,
    "share15": 0.0028625954198473282,
    "share60": 0.0027208036835496023,
    "total15": 523,
    "total60": 2388,
    "momentum": 1.0521139166177333,
    "diversity": 0.8333333333333334,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 6,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 343,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9988219444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998036574074074
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4562880608351947
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 22:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.296

Log loss0.785

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0016196954972465176,
  "shareRatio": 1.39635340186001,
  "totalAfter": 15435,
  "shareBefore": 0.0011393514460999123,
  "totalBefore": 11410,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 25,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 13
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 46% that "charts" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.11% → 0.16% (+42%). INCORRECT.

— diversity was right but too weak on "charts" (6H). diversity contributed +0.10 toward yes, the true outcome, but could not overcome the prior.

— The prior was wrong on "charts" (6H). Every active signal pointed the right way; the base assumption outweighed them.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash1c1db83ead5b1b96aec956ec8636a3de3a0bcebf988f9681ce7dcdf2591bc991

Previous hashfe43b5f90449e7925d992334c9af5fcb26e99b90958d660bb495767ed3403913