Ledger / Prediction #913 · narrative · 24H
Will "cap" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 30% → FADES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
55 of 2388 launches in the last hour referenced "cap" (19 distinct creators, rank #12). Last 15m momentum 0.37×.
Made2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 16:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.35968429091975557,
"momentum": -0.9951671609713473,
"diversity": -0.4854545454545454
},
"rawProbability": 0.2972414284756827
},
"features": {
"term": "cap",
"rank60": 12,
"share15": 0.008587786259541985,
"share60": 0.023231477605692757,
"total15": 523,
"total60": 2388,
"momentum": 0.3696616463792037,
"diversity": 0.34545454545454546,
"launches15": 4,
"launches60": 55,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 19
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 343,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9988219444444445,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999509143518519
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.2972414284756827
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 16:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.494
Log loss1.213
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.004765633739791923,
"shareRatio": 1.335465751028665,
"totalAfter": 44695,
"shareBefore": 0.003566697238357281,
"totalBefore": 49065,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 213,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 175
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 30% that "cap" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.36% → 0.48% (+34%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "cap" (24H). momentum contributed -1.00 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
91ac0491e1f3d07bcbba73c4830a68d085f6c23328d82c91c4fbd8726fc517c4Previous hash
1c1db83ead5b1b96aec956ec8636a3de3a0bcebf988f9681ce7dcdf2591bc991