Will "set" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 30% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

52 of 2388 launches in the last hour referenced "set" (16 distinct creators, rank #15). Last 15m momentum 0.39×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.351270870922099,
      "momentum": -0.9395973098165366,
      "diversity": -0.5307692307692308
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2974338245736504
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "set",
    "rank60": 15,
    "share15": 0.008587786259541985,
    "share60": 0.021975722059439096,
    "total15": 523,
    "total60": 2388,
    "momentum": 0.3907851690294439,
    "diversity": 0.3076923076923077,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 52,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 16
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 343,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9988219444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999509143518519
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2974338245736504
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0008054592236268039,
  "shareRatio": 0.387136848913411,
  "totalAfter": 44695,
  "shareBefore": 0.002099256088861714,
  "totalBefore": 49065,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 36,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 103
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity